Cobra每天复盘24/05
今天没有什么像样的证据说涨还是跌，我的判断是向下的可能性稍微大那么一点点，理由是一贯领先的QQQ, IWM and RSP都lower low了。另外从chart pattern判断，收盘前的下跌至少是15 min chart上的2 leg down，现在才是1st leg，所以至少明天早盘会软一软。http://www.hutong9.net/data/attachment/forum/201105/24/204556xs76jj78m7djtjyj.png下面的back test稍微有一点点bearish edge，实在找不到东西吹了，所以只能把这个拿出来了，免强算是看跌的理由吧。ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index < 30, short at today’s close, cover on the very first down day, you’ll have 70% chances since March 2009 bull market，换句话说就是有70%的机会SPY lower close ahead。http://www.hutong9.net/data/attachment/forum/201105/24/2045554vxae14a8vvtdewv.png
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