Cobra每日复盘17/06(短期方向不明)
短期方向不明，暂时bearish biased，理由是统计和Seasonality下周都对牛牛不利：The statistics mentioned in 06/03 Market Outlook, weekly IWM Bearish Engulfing and SPX down 5 consecutive weeks means unpleasant the next week.
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, week after June Triple Witching, Dow down 11 in a row and 18 of last 20, average loss since 1990, 1.2%.
图形上讲，想来想去，又扔了一个硬币，还是觉得少了the 3rd push down (see 06/17 Trading Signals)。虽然the 3rd push，lower low不是必须的，因此可能周五的pullback就算是push down过了，不过如果仔细看最近SPX的几次反弹的话，这次恐怕是最弱的，所以可能倾向于the 3rd push down还没有完，是有一点点点点（此处省略100个点点）道理的。http://www.hutong9.net/data/attachment/forum/201106/18/180257s0oehgyaytyxxrxz.pnghttp://www.hutong9.net/data/attachment/forum/201106/18/1803006swlulxvwqvtt66w.png
其他没啥说的，Normalized CPCE可能创了历史，Net % of all Sentimentrader’s Indicators at Extreme依然非常bullish，不过QQQ连跌7周，过去两次后面都不好玩，当然，总可以问，是否第三次会不一样？总之，下周继续反弹，我不会觉得很吃惊，但是，是否the low was in了，这个，还得走着瞧。http://www.hutong9.net/data/attachment/forum/201106/18/180259wisxnenzidzhaxiz.pnghttp://www.hutong9.net/data/attachment/forum/201106/18/180258cecux0585ivx8o6i.pnghttp://www.hutong9.net/data/attachment/forum/201106/18/180300cccfut31wtwx13yw.png
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