一带一路学院特聘教授、吉尔吉斯斯坦前总理:改善对华关系符合美国自身利益
作者：微信文章https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_jpg/ztAiaPK7LuWPkUyC2uQbTW6h6esX3hJfeYoIyamjP4hrsfCXStxVPO5c5EuYm6kpUibjbsv9CcoCSSOUFYwicqXpQ/640?wx_fmt=other&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1&tp=webp
卓奥马尔特·奥托尔巴耶夫
(Djoomart Otorbaev)
吉尔吉斯共和国前总理
北京师范大学一带一路学院特聘教授
编者按：作者为吉尔吉斯共和国前总理、北京师范大学一带一路学院特聘教授卓奥马尔特·奥托尔巴耶夫 (Djoomart Otorbaev)，著作有《Central Asia’s Economic Rebirth in the Shadow of the New Great Game》（Routledge，2023）。
作者3月13日在《中国日报》撰文称，中美加强经贸合作符合双方利益，美国加征关税纯属搬起石头砸自己的脚。
漫画作者：中国日报 罗杰
加征关税不符合美方利益
文章指出，了解“让美国再次伟大”这一口号对于解读美国总统特朗普的对华政策至关重要。在“让美国再次伟大”背景下，中国被渲染成美国在意识形态、地缘政治以及经济领域的主要对手。然而，“让美国再次伟大”的本质是唯我独尊，不仅不会让美国受益，反而会损害美国的利益。事实上，美国加强同中国以及其他国家的合作有助于实现互利共赢。
2024年，中国是美国第四大货物贸易伙伴、第三大进口来源国以及第四大出口目的地。
中美改善经济关系势在必行，这将给双方带来实实在在的利益。然而，美国长期攻击抹黑中国，如今又以牵强借口对中国出口产品采取歧视性措施、施加制裁、加征关税。
2月1日，美国宣布对从中国进口的商品加征10%关税。2月27日，特朗普宣布，将于3月4日起对中国输美产品再加征10%关税。中国采取了反制措施，对原产于美国的部分进口商品加征关税。其中，对煤炭、液化天然气加征15%关税；对原油、农业机械、大排量汽车、皮卡等商品加征10%关税。
美国企业和消费者首当其冲
文章进一步表示，长期以来，特朗普将加征关税作为经济政策中不可或缺的一部分。不过大多数专家认为，加征关税所产生的最大负面影响将由挑起关税战的国家及其消费者承担。
事实上，关税是对进口商品征收的国内税，最终成本由进口商而不是出口商来承担。也就是说，关税是进口商向本国政府缴纳的直接税，加征关税的成本会转嫁给消费者和进口企业，消费品价格将由此上涨。
在首个总统任期内，特朗普已经对来自中国的钢铁、太阳能电池板、医疗设备等商品加征关税。特朗普政府当时辩称，加征关税的成本主要由中国承担。然而，一项独立研究显示事实并非如此，加征关税所产生的成本几乎都转嫁给了美国进口商以及消费者。
加征关税对美国低收入家庭的影响尤为明显，他们以前经常选购物美价廉的中国商品。大多数其他专业研究也得出了类似结论。
根据芝加哥大学布斯商学院去年9月进行的一项调查，在40多名全球顶尖经济学家中，98%的受访者认为加征关税增加的消费成本会被转嫁给消费者。
现代经济理论基于实际案例提出，竞争性贸易可以提高经济产出和收入，而贸易壁垒则会起到阻碍作用。近期的证据表明，加征关税会提高消费价格，减少外国商品和服务的供应量，最终会降低企业和劳动者的收入。消费价格上涨意味着劳动力和资本的回报率下降，这就导致美国人更加不愿工作和投资，进而降低了生产和生活水平。
深化对华合作符合美国自身利益
文章强调，无论国际形势如何变化，中国国内政策应当聚焦三个关键领域。第一，增强竞争力，牢记“打铁还需自身硬”的古训。第二，拉动内需，促进国内市场增长，降低对出口和外部市场的依赖。第三，注重技术创新，推动科技创新和产业创新融合发展。
特朗普实施歧视性政策不仅不能“让美国再次伟大”，反而会适得其反。作为相互依存的经济体，中美深化合作有助于增进两国人民乃至全球民众的福祉。美国挑起新一轮关税战，将阻碍自身经济发展，影响本国民众的生活。
目前，美国还有时间重新思考，做出正确选择。
《中国日报》
原文如下
US should improve ties for own good
An American flag flies outside of the US Capitol dome in Washington, US, Jan 15, 2020.
The "Make America Great Again" rallying cry is vital for understanding US President Donald Trump's China policy. Among other things, the rallying cry tends to portray China as the primary ideological, geopolitical and economic rival of the United States. However, the self-centered nature of the slogan will not benefit the US; instead, it will likely harm it.
In contrast, the US' cooperation with China and the rest of the world will yield mutual benefit. This raises a question: How do economic relations evolve between the world's two largest economies? There are numerous stereotypes, most of which are misguided.
In 2024, China was the US' fourth-largest trading partner in goods, with a total trade volume of $582.5 billion; the third-largest source of imports ($438.9 billion); and the fourth-largest export destination ($143.5 billion). As for services, in 2023, China accounted for 4.6 percent ($46.7 billion) of the US' service exports and 2.7 percent ($20.1 billion) of its service imports.
But the two most prominent economies in the world are today hesitant to invest in one another. For example, in 2023, US foreign direct investment in China totaled $126.9 billion, accounting for 1.9 percent of the US' total investment abroad, while Chinese FDI in the US was $28.0 billion, representing just 0.5 percent of its total investments overseas.
According to the US Treasury Department, as of November 2024, US investors held $331.8 billion in Chinese securities, while China's holdings of US securities were nearly six times higher, at $1.9 trillion.
So it is imperative that the two countries improve their economic relations, because they bring tangible benefits to both. However, the negative public opinion about China in the US, cultivated there for a long time, has led, under a far-fetched pretext, to the implementation of discriminatory measures and various sanctions and tariffs against Chinese exports.
On Feb 27, US President Donald Trump announced an additional 10 percent tariffs on Chinese imports. Beijing responded with 10-15 percent tariffs on US farm equipment, cars, coal and liquefied natural gas, and imposed export controls on certain chemicals.
Trump has long argued that tariffs will be an integral part of his economic policy. During the Inauguration Day parade at Capital One Arena, he bluntly declared, "I always say tariffs are the most beautiful words in the dictionary to me", adding that God, religion and love are the first three in that order, followed by tariffs.
But most experts believe that tariffs will have the biggest negative impacts on the country imposing them and on end consumers.
A tariff is a domestic tax levied on goods imported into a country. The cost of that tariff is ultimately borne by a domestic company that imports certain goods, not the foreign company that exports them. Thus, a tariff is a direct tax domestic companies pay the government. Higher tariffs on products are passed on to the end consumers or importing companies, leading to higher prices for the consumers.
During Trump's first term, his administration imposed tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of steel, solar panels, medical devices and other goods made in China. At the time, the administration argued that the burden of these tariffs would primarily fall on China. However, an independent study found that that was not the case, as nearly all the tariffs on $362 billion worth of goods imported from China were passed on to the American companies and consumers that imported them or ultimately bought them.
The impact of these tariffs was particularly significant on low-income households, which typically spend their modest incomes on affordable goods from China. Most other professional studies have shown similar results.
In a September 2024 survey by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, 98 percent of more than 40 leading global economists agreed that tariffs increase costs that are passed on to consumers.
Based on practical examples, modern economic theory posits that competitive trade enhances economic output and income while trade barriers hinder them. Recent evidence has shown that tariffs raise prices and reduce the quantity of goods and services supplied by the foreign country. This eventually diminishes the income of both businesses and workers. Higher prices lessen the return on labor and capital, discouraging American people from working and investing, leading to lower production and living standards.
Regardless of the global developments, China should prioritize three key areas in its domestic policy. First, it should enhance its competitiveness, adhering to the well-known Chinese saying: "To forge iron, one must be strong oneself." Second, it should stimulate domestic demand and foster the growth of the domestic market to reduce reliance on exports and external market conditions. And third, it should vigorously promote technological innovation, focusing on improving the synergy between innovation and industry.
The implementation of Trump's discriminatory policies will hinder the success of MAGA; in fact, it will undermine it. China and the US are interdependent economies, and their cooperation will enhance the wellbeing of their people and those in the rest of world. New tariffs will hinder the US economy's development and impact American people's life. More important, it is not too late for the US to reconsider and embrace wisdom and common sense.
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上文发表于中国日报中文网
英文原文刊发于《中国日报》智享汇栏目
原标题为"US should improve ties for own good"
图片来源于《中国日报》
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