中美经贸会谈达成共识,关税暂停意味着货运量将激增,运费或将上涨
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报告来源：CNBC翻译：XCLshippingAUTHOR INTRODUCTION
Lori Ann LaRocco洛瑞·安·拉罗科
屡获殊荣的作家、《嘉宾》高级编辑和 CNBC 全球物流记者。FreightWaves 贸易专栏作家
KEY POINTS要点
零售商，尤其是小企业，表示中美暂停加征关税是件好事，但消费者应该预期价格上涨将长期存在。
Retailers, especially small businesses, say the U.S.-China pause in tariffs is welcome, but consumers should expect higher prices are here to stay.
物流公司预计在未来四到六周内货运集装箱将激增，更多货物将提前装载，这将为海运、卡车和铁路公司带来好处，但也将增加进口商的成本。
Logistics companies anticipate a surge in freight containers over the next four to six weeks as more goods are frontloaded, a boost for ocean, trucking, and rail companies, but adding to the costs for importers.
5月12日，瑞士日内瓦，美国财政部长贝森特（右）和贸易代表格里尔在中美经贸高层会谈后召开新闻发布会。
零售商和物流高管表示，随着美国和中国达成的初步贸易协议生效，90 天暂停征收最高关税期间，从中国到美国的贸易量应该会开始增加。
Another surge in trade from China to the U.S. should be getting underway, according to retailers and logistics executives, as the initial trade deal struck by the U.S. and China leads importers to move forward with shipments during the 90-day pause on the steepest tariffs implemented by President Donald Trump.
周一，美国和中国政府宣布达成贸易协议，尽管美国-中国协议的细节仍然模糊不清。但在短期内，该协议最重要的方面是暂停所谓的对等关税，尽管全面实施的 10%关税仍然有效，以及与芬太尼相关的 20% 关税也将继续实施。
On Monday, the U.S. and Chinese governments announced a trade deal, though the details of the U.S.-China pact are still sketchy. But in the short term the most important aspect of the agreement is the suspension of the so-called reciprocal tariffs, though broad-based 10% duties will remain in effect, as well as a 20% tariff related to fentanyl.
ITS物流公司全球供应链副总裁保罗·布拉希尔(Paul Brashier)表示：“我有一些客户，他们在中国预先装载了数千个集装箱，随时准备运进来。”在接下来的四到六周内，他预计集装箱数量将激增，并称这90天的暂停期是“中国之外供应链规划的关键时刻”。
“I have clients with thousands of containers pre-loaded in China that is ready to come in,” said Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain at ITS Logistics. Over the next four to six weeks, he expects a surge of containers, calling the 90-day pause “the pivotal moment for supply chain planning out of China.”
纽约天使投资公司成员、清洁用品公司卡萨贝拉的创始人及前首席执行官布鲁斯・卡明斯坦表示：“为期 90 天的 30% 关税将让小企业的货物再次流动起来。” 但小企业获得的喘息之机并不能消除他们更大的担忧。他说：“他们被反复无常的政策挟持了。企业处境艰难，所以他们总会想方设法解决这个问题。”
“The 30% tariff for 90 days will start goods flowing again for small businesses,” said Bruce Kaminstein, a member of NY Angels and founder and former CEO of cleaning products company Casabella. But the reprieve for small businesses will not eliminate their larger worries. “They are being held hostage to an erratic policy. Businesses are in difficult situations, so they will make this work somehow as they always do,” he said.
Freightos研究主管朱达·莱文（Judah Levine）表示：“20%的关税水平并未阻止托运人在3月和4月提前装运。在此期间，美国海运进口量同比增长了11%，因此目前‘下调’至30%的关税水平，应该会促使托运人再次提前拉动需求，以赶在8月可能的关税上调之前完成运输。”
″Tariffs at the 20% level didn’t stop shippers from frontloading in March and April,” said Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos. “U.S. ocean import volumes were up 11% year over year in that stretch, so thecurrent ‘reduced’ 30% level should see a restart of shippers pulling forward demand to beat a possible August tariff hike.”
里克·马斯克特（Rick Muskat）是家族鞋类零售商Deer Stags的总裁，该公司从中国进口商品，并在梅西百货（Macy's）、科尔士百货（Kohl's）、杰西潘尼（JCPenney）等主要零售商以及亚马逊（Amazon）上销售。他告诉CNBC，30%的关税将使其能够恢复从中国的发货，但由于积压的需求，集装箱运费可能会飙升。
Rick Muskat, president of family-owned shoe retailer Deer Stags, which imports its goods from China and sells in major retailers including Macy’s, Kohl’s, JCPenney, and on Amazon, tells CNBC that the 30% tariffs will allow it to resume shipments from China, but container rates will likely skyrocket due to pent-up demand.
“我们的成本将上涨近40%，” 马斯克特说。“所以我们将不得不提高秋季交货的价格。”
“Our costs will go up closer to 40%,” said Muskat. “So we will have to raise prices for fall deliveries.”
马斯克特说，假日货物运输的时机将导致进口商进一步提前采购。他表示，由于无法确定是否会达成永久性协议，且大部分假日商品需要在8月和9月离开中国，“由于90天暂停期之后情况的不确定性，将会有大量提前储备库存”。
The timing of holiday shipments will lead to even more frontloading by importers, Muskat said. Without being able to know if a permanent deal will be reached, and with the bulk of holiday goods needing to leave China in August and September, “there will be a lot of front-loading inventory due to the uncertainty of what follows the 90-day pause,” he said.
他们仍然对特朗普政府的贸易政策感到不满，这种政策摇摆不定，已经给他们的业务带来了损失。马斯克特说，Deer Stags公司有一批货物被征收了 145%以上的关税，这批货物被移到了保税仓库——这是一种由美国海关监管但无需支付关税的受保护存储设施——以等待关税是否会被降低。那一个集装箱的额外存储成本超过了 10,000 美元。“现在我们将这批库存配送到我们的分销中心，我们已经承担了所有这些成本，却没有得到任何好处！”马斯克特说。“这都加在一起了。”
There is still lingering frustration with the Trump administration for a trade policy that has whipsawed and already cost their businesses. Muskat said Deer Stags had one shipment subjected to the 145% tariffs that was moved into a bonded warehouse — a secure storage facility that is supervised by U.S. Customs without tariffs needing to be paid — to wait and see if the tariffs would be lowered. The additional storage cost for that one container is well over $10,000. “Now we will release that inventory into our distribution center, and will have absorbed all the costs involved for no good reason!” Muskat said. “This all adds up.”全球供应链成本上升Rising costs in the global supply chain
减少对中国商品的关税至 30%，同时越来越多的企业可能会再次提前下单，预计供应链成本将会上升。卡明斯坦表示，消费品公司通常毛利率在 40% 至 50% 之间，30% 的关税很难融入许多商业模式中。
Reduced tariffs on Chinese goods at 30% will also come amid expectations of rising costs in the supply chain as more companies look to frontload orders again. With the typical gross margin for consumer products companies in the range of 40-50%, a 30% tariff is difficult to work into many business models, Kaminstein said.
物流公司OL USA首席执行官艾伦·贝尔（Alan Baer）表示：“对于整体进口商而言，30%的水平可能仍会给他们的产品和整体盈利能力带来挑战。鉴于航运公司宣布的空班数量，运量增长、舱位和价格可能是另一个需要跨越的障碍。”
“For importers overall, the 30% level may still make their product and overall profitability a challenge,” said Alan Baer, CEO of logistics company OL USA. “Volume increases, space and price may be another hurdle to leap over given the number of blank sailings announced by carriers.”
从贸易战开始以来，中国远洋货轮的空载航次一直在增加。
Blank sailings of freight vessels from China have been on the rise throughout the trade war.
随着贸易战的持续，空白航次数量增加
Blank sailings increase as the trade war continues
亚洲驶往美国的计划航次空船率
Share of blank sails as a percentage of scheduled ships from Asia to U.S.
在2025年的第12周，原计划于5月初的空白航班占比接近0%。四周后，在所有穿越太平洋的船只中，这一比例高达40%。
In the 12th week of 2025, blank sailings scheduled for the beginning of May were near 0%. Four weeks later, they were as high as 40% of all ships crossing the Pacific.
来源：Sea-Intelligence
Xeneta的数据显示，自4月20日以来，从中国到美国西海岸的跨太平洋贸易航线上，船舶可用运力的四周滚动平均值下降了17%。同期，空白航次数量增加了86%。
Xeneta data shows the four-week rolling average for offered vessel capacity on the Transpacific trade route from China to the U.S. West Coast is down 17% since April 20. Blanked (canceled) sailings are up 86% in the same period.
卡明斯坦表示，需要结合提价、企业自行消化部分利润，以及削减固定开支等措施。而企业主们仍面临一些重大问题：“不确定性对企业来说是致命的。如何在90天前报价？如何预测现金流量表？如何做出长期资本决策？如果这项关税政策的目的是将制造业带回美国，企业又该如何应对未来的不确定性？”
A combination of price increases and some absorption of margin by companies, plus a reduction of fixed expenses, will be needed, Kaminstein said, and big questions remain unanswered for business owners: “The unpredictable is a killer for businesses. How do you quote 90 days out? How do you forecast a cash flow statement? How do you make long-term capital decisions? If the intent of this tariff policy is to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., how does a company deal with the unpredictability of the future?”
美国服装与鞋类协会首席执行官史蒂夫·拉马尔表示，关税暂停是一个好的进展，但这并不能阻止价格上涨。拉马尔说：“遗憾的是，剩余30%的关税（叠加在现有的301条款关税和最惠国关税之上）仍将使大多数美国人在返校季和节假日购物时面临高昂的价格。”“如果由于关税导致航运中断，运费飙升，而这种中断需要数月时间才能缓解，我们可能会看到成本和价格进一步攀升。”
Steve Lamar, CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association, says the tariff pause is a good development, but it will not stop prices from going up. “Sadly, the residual 30% tariff (stacked on top of the existing Section 301 and MFN tariffs) will still make for an expensive back-to-school and holiday season for most Americans,” said Lamar. “If freight rates spike due to the tariff-induced shipping disruptions, which will take months to unwind, we could see costs and prices creep up further.”
在一些零售细分领域，关税仍然要高得多。美国鞋类经销商与零售商协会首席执行官马特·普里斯特告诉CNBC，由于此前对某些童鞋产品征收的关税仍然存在，即便关税有所下调，这些童鞋仍需缴纳97.5%的关税。
In some retail niches, tariffs remain much higher. Matt Priest, CEO of Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America, tells CNBC that some kids’ shoes are still subject to a 97.5% duty even with the decrease, due to pre-existing duties that are still levied on the product.
普里斯特说：“这是不可接受的。我们在致政府的信中已经列出了明确、合理的豁免条款，我们敦促他们采取行动，进一步减轻美国民众的负担。我们这个行业需要得到缓解，我们所服务的家庭也是如此。”
“That’s unacceptable. We’ve outlined clear, reasonable exemptions in our letter to the administration, and we urge them to take action to ease the burden on Americans further. Our industry needs relief — and so do the families we serve,” said Priest.关键行业表示库存正在减少Critical industries say inventory is running low
在零售业之外，各行各业的首席执行官们在忙着争取订单的同时，仍在与立法者探讨关税对关键行业的影响。化学品分销联盟首席执行官埃里克·拜尔表示，化学品供应链已遭受损害，如今在新关税暂停实施期间，将会出现一股补充库存的热潮，但在某些时段，仍有可能出现供应短缺的情况。
Beyond retail, CEOs across the economy continue to speak with lawmakers on the impact of the tariffs inside critical industries, while they rush to bring in orders. Eric Byer, CEO of the Alliance for Chemical Distribution, said the damage to the chemical supply chain has been done, and now there will be a scurry of activity to replenish inventory during the new tariffs pause, with some gaps in time where it’s possible there is no supply.
“上周末，我们几个最大的会员表示，他们所做的囤货将支撑他们度过阵亡将士纪念日，”拜尔说。“在那之后，恐惧就会开始蔓延，因为目前库存水平在80%至90%的仓库库存将急剧下降，到6月中旬至月底可能降至不到10%，”他说。“我怀疑我们将看到一场极其活跃的订购狂潮，届时又会出现可用船只太少，无法满足需求的情况（就像新冠疫情期间一样），”他补充道。
“A couple of our biggest members over the weekend said the stockpiling they all did was going to tide them over until Memorial Day,” said Byer. “After that, the fear sets in as the warehouses that are now in the 80-90% full range will drop precipitously, likely to less than 10% by the middle to end of June,” he said. “I suspect we will see an incredibly active ordering frenzy that will once again have too few ships ready to accommodate the demand (like Covid all over again),” he added.
拜尔表示，用于洗涤剂和清洁产品、各种饮料（如柠檬酸饮料、苏打水、运动饮料等）以及肥料中的磷酸库存已经极为紧张。其他库存紧张的化学品包括维生素C中的抗坏血酸、用于制造烘焙/清洁产品的碳酸氢铵，以及建筑用混凝土的关键化学品硫氰酸钠。
Byer said inventory is already extremely tight for phosphoric acid, used in detergents and cleaning products, a wide range of drinks (like citric, soda, sports drinks, etc.), and in fertilizer. Other chemicals where inventories are tight include ascorbic acid found in Vitamin C, ammonium bicarbonate used to make baking/cleaning products, and sodium thiocyanate, a critical chemical for concrete used in construction.旺季将“全力冲刺”至第三季度Peak shipping season will ‘run hard’ into Q3
“这将开启旺季，并一直持续到第三季度，” 布拉希尔说。“有很多建筑和制造业项目计划在2026年进行，这些公司都有要完成的最后期限，而且这些项目都计划在2026年初破土动工。”
“This will kick off peak season and run hard until the third quarter,” said Brashier. “There are a lot of construction and manufacturing projects slated for 2026, and these companies have deadlines to hit, and the projects are being staged for breaking ground in early 2026.”
关于任何特朗普的税收法案、其他放松管制政策，以及美联储的降息举措，若取得进展，也可能推动2026年的货运量激增。
Any progress on Trump’s tax bill, and other deregulation policies, as well as any Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, may also fuel a shipments spike into 2026.
Xeneta首席航运分析师彼得·桑德（Peter Sand）警告称，这一激增将导致海运价格飙升。桑德说：“短期内，从中国到美国西海岸的海运价格可能会上涨20%。”而此前运费刚刚经历了大幅下跌。根据Xeneta的数据，自1月1日以来，从中国到美国西海岸和美国东海岸的平均现货运价分别下降了56%和48%。
Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at Xeneta, warns the surge will lead to a spike in ocean freight prices. “Ocean freight could be up to 20% in the short term from China to the U.S. West Coast,” said Sand. That would be coming off a major decline in rates. According to Xeneta, average spot rates are down 56% and 48% from China to the U.S. West Coast and U.S. East Coast since January 1.
桑德表示：“托运人将利用这90天的窗口期，尽可能多地将货物运往美国，这将对运费构成上行压力。”他补充称：“航运公司通过削减中美集装箱运力，并将其重新部署到其他航线（比如远东至欧洲航线），来应对从中国运往美国的货运量下滑的情况。要把运力重新调配回来需要时间，因此中美货运量的回升，可能意味着托运人短期内不得不支付略高一些的运费。”
“Shippers will take the 90-day window of opportunity to ship as many goods as possible into the U.S. and this will put upward pressure on freight rates,” Sand said. “Carriers responded to falling volumes from China to the U.S. by slashing container shipping capacity and redeploying it onto other trades, such as the Far East to Europe. It takes time to shift capacity back again, so a revival in volumes from China to U.S. may mean shippers have to pay a little ‘over the odds’ in the short term,” he added.
弗吉尼亚港首席执行官斯蒂芬·爱德华兹告诉CNBC，该港口一直在评估并规划可能导致中国集装箱数量激增的各种情形。
Stephen Edwards, CEO of the Port of Virginia, tells CNBC it has been reviewing and planning scenarios that would lead to a surge in Chinese containers.
爱德华兹说：“我们都回顾了在新冠疫情期间、巴拿马运河限水期间、红海局势变化期间以及此前其他情形下的财务模型，看看贸易减少时发生了什么，之后的复苏情况又如何。”
“We’ve all gone back to our financial models of what happened during Covid, what happened during the Panama Canal water restrictions, what happened when the Red Sea changes happened, and other scenarios prior to that to see what happened with the reduction in trade and then the recovery,” said Edwards.
他补充说，对供应链来说最重要的是知道“游戏规则”是什么。“一旦我们知道了游戏规则，供应链就会非常灵活。是的，供应链的某些环节会花费较长的时间，但很快，我们都会适应那个新环境，”他说。
He added that the most important thing for the supply chain is to be able to know what the “playing field” is. “Once we know the playing field, the supply chain is very agile. Yes, there are parts of the supply chain that take longer, but very quickly, we will all adapt to that new environment,” he said.
2024 年美国主要港口
Top U.S. ports in 2024
总 TEU 量及中国港口贸易份额
Total TEUs and China's share of port trade
备注：包含香港贸易
Note: Includes Hong Kong trade
来源：公开报告，S&P 全球市场情报
Source: Public reports, S&P Global Market Intelligence
“现在需要的是一项长期协议——不仅与中国，而且与所有我们的贸易伙伴——这样我们才能可预测地做出长期贸易、投资和采购决策。”拉马尔说。“What’s needed now is a long-term deal — not just with China but with all our trading partners — so we can predictably make long-term trade, investment, and sourcing decisions,” Lamar said.
美国零售联合会首席执行官马修·谢伊表示，此次临时暂停关税是关键的第一步，能在假期购物季来临前为零售商和其他企业提供一些短期的缓解。他还称，美中协议“为取得重大进展奠定了基础”，不仅是与中国，还包括与其他许多国家。
Matthew Shay, CEO of the National Retail Federation, said the temporary pause is a critical first step to provide some short-term relief for retailers and other businesses ahead of the holiday season. He added the U.S.-China agreement “lays the foundation for substantial progress” with not just China, but with many other nations.
但花旗银行贸易与营运资金解决方案负责人阿多尼罗·切斯塔里（Adoniro Cestari）表示，鉴于这些挑战的性质不断变化，许多企业在做出重大生产和投资决策之前，仍会继续等待局势更加明朗。他补充说，正如在新冠疫情期间所看到的那样，无论短期结果如何，企业都将更加积极地制定风险管理策略，以应对关税和壁垒可能带来的长期波动。
But many businesses will continue to wait for more certainty before making significant production and investment decisions given the changing nature of these challenges, according to Adoniro Cestari, head of trade and working capital solutions for Citi. He added that as seen during the Covid pandemic, regardless of short-term outcomes, companies will be more active with risk management strategies related to possible long-term volatility around tariffs and barriers.
“这种持续的不确定性对经营企业来说是一种艰难的状况！” 马斯克说。
“The continued uncertainty is a difficult way to run a business!” Muskat said.点击“阅读原文”即可查看报告原文。
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