关税战带来的产业转移趋势已然形成?
作者：微信文章原标题：中美贸易"休战"后的真实困境
（股票新闻 2025年5月20日报道）
注：外文资讯，仅供参考，不代表公众号观点。
市场似乎正在以惊人的速度消化最新一轮中美贸易冲突。中国沪深300指数今年已上涨1.4%，完全收复了4月初特朗普宣布对中国商品征收34%对等关税后的暴跌失地。这场冲突曾迅速升级为三位数的报复性关税，但如今后者已被取消，前者也暂停90天执行，使得官方对等关税维持在与其他国家持平的10%水平。
但现实情况要严峻得多。在特朗普第二任期开始时，中国商品实际承担的关税税率就已达到约11%（来自上一轮贸易战）。随后白宫立即以芬太尼问题为由追加了20%关税，叠加其他普遍性关税后，中国商品面临的实际关税总额已超过40%。
尽管美国政府为智能手机、电脑等电子产品提供了豁免，但据惠誉测算，计入钢铁等产品的全球性关税后，中国商品实际税率仍高达32%，远超13%的全球平均水平。
4月13日电子产品关税豁免次日，美国政府立即启动了半导体进口国家安全调查。若此举导致豁免范围缩小，中国商品实际税率将进一步上升，给本已艰难的贸易谈判雪上加霜。
身处漩涡的企业并不期待快速恢复原状。据路透社报道，苹果计划将大部分销美iPhone生产转移至印度。全球最大玩具制造商之一、沃尔玛供应商香港伟易达CEO黄子欣也表示，计划在2026年底前将所有对美产品生产线撤出中国。
惠誉5月13日报告显示，美国对中国商品实际关税税率已达31.8%，居所有贸易伙伴之首。尽管5月12日美国政府宣布暂停34%对等关税90天，并取消上月实施的三位数报复性关税，但产业转移的趋势已然形成。
（消息来源：路透社）
英文原文
The post-truce state of US-China trade looks dire
in Stock News20/05/2025
Markets appear to be writing off the latest Sino-American trade conflict as quickly as they priced it in. China’s benchmark CSI 300 index 3399300 is up 1.4% this year, marking a full recovery from its sharp drop in early April after President Donald Trump announced a 34% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods, which swiftly spiralled into triple-digit retaliatory levies. The latter has been cancelled and the former suspended for 90 days, leaving the official reciprocal charge at 10%, level with other countries.
In reality, it’s much higher. Beijing’s burden was already heavier, having started out Trump’s second term with effective tariffs of roughly 11% incurred during his previous trade war. Almost immediately, the White House then slapped another 20% on Chinese goods, citing concerns over fentanyl. That, stacked atop the other blanket levies, brings the country’s total to more than 40%.
The administration did carve out some exemptions for smartphones, computers and other electronics. Factor in both those but also new global tariffs on products like steel, and the effective rate is almost 32%, per Fitch. That’s far higher than the global average of about 13%, the rating agency estimates.
Optimists may take heart from the speed with which Beijing and Washington scrapped the retaliatory levies. So far, though, aside from a modest and preliminary pact with the UK, there is little indication that U.S. discussions with its other trading partners are yielding much real progress ahead of their 90-day deadline in early July.
Worse, the electronics carve-out on April 13 was followed the next day by a national security probe into semiconductor imports. If that ends up shrinking the loophole and pushing the effective rate on China higher, it will complicate already fraught trade talks.
Those with skin in the game don’t expect a quick deal restoring the status quo ante. Apple AAPL intends to shift production of most U.S.-bound iPhones to India, Reuters reported last month. Last week, Allan Wong, CEO of Hong Kong’s Vtech 303 — one of the world’s largest toymakers and a supplier for Walmart WMT — told the Financial Times that he planned to shift all production for the U.S. market out of China by the end of next year.
Other manufacturers previously battered by protracted uncertainty during Trump’s 2018-2020 trade war are planning similar moves, Nikkei and others have reported. Traders may be betting on a quick resolution, but that’s at odds with the dire situation on the ground.
The effective U.S. tariff rate on imports from China currently stands at 31.8%, per a report from ratings agency Fitch on May 13, the highest of any trading partner. That’s after President Donald Trump’s administration on May 12 suspended for 90 days the 34% U.S. reciprocal tariff on goods from the People’s Republic and cancelled triple-digit retaliatory levies imposed last month.
The White House exempted smartphones, computers and some other electronics from reciprocal tariffs on April 13, but opened a national security probe into semiconductor imports the following day.
Allan Wong, CEO of Hong Kong-based VTech, one of the world’s largest toymakers and supplier for Walmart, told the Financial Times on May 14 that despite the trade truce his company planned to shift all production for the American market out of China by the end of 2026.
Source: Reuters
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