特朗普威胁对苹果手机加征关税,使得苹果新机型涨价的可能性增大
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特朗普威胁对苹果手机加征关税，使得苹果新机型涨价的可能性增大
Trump’s iPhone tariff threat makes price hikes for upcoming models likelier
Apple is expected to unveil four new iPhone models in a matter of months — and they might cost more than you expect.
On Friday, President Donald Trump threatened to impose a significant new tariff on iPhones, seemingly in hopes of forcing the company to produce its most lucrative product line domestically.
“I have long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhone’s that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anyplace else,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. “If that is not the case, a Tariff of at least 25% must be paid by Apple to the U.S.” Most consumers buying an iPhone around the world wind up with a device produced in China, but Cook, the Apple CEO, said in early May that the majority of new iPhones arriving in the U.S. would come from assembly facilities in India.
Currently, Apple builds none of its iPhone models in the United States. Even if it wanted to, the process of developing a domestic production pipeline would be staggeringly expensive and would take years — the first American-made iPhones probably would not ship until after Trump leaves office, said Gerrit Schneemann, a senior analyst at Counterpoint Research.
“Would that be enough appeasement? I don’t know,” he said.
Notably, Trump did not call out any of the company’s other products — like Apple Watches, Mac computers, AirPods and iPads — that Cook indicated would largely be sourced from Vietnam.
Cook also previously said that, assuming trade policy remained stable, the company expected to take on an additional $900 million in costs directly related to tariffs. An additional 25 percent tariff complicates that math further and makes it far less likely that Apple — even with its vast cash reserve — keeps iPhone prices stable by eating those costs.
Schneemann said that although a price increase for Apple’s iPhone 17 models was already likely to happen, “this latest development makes it almost a certainty.” Apple did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
In the wake of Trump’s announcement, several questions remain.
In an appearance on Fox News after the president made his statement, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Trump is “trying to bring back precision manufacturing to the U.S.” But it’s not clear how effective the president’s threat will in be in forcing Apple to move iPhone production stateside.
Ming-Chi Kuo, an analyst at TF Securities International, said in a post on X that — if Trump’s tariff plan holds — Apple would be financially better off continuing to produce all iPhones overseas.
That means the iPhones you may buy down the road probably will be more expensive than they used to be, but not as much as some estimates of what a fully American iPhone could cost. (One slightly outlandish guess pegs a U.S.-made iPhone’s price at around $3,500.) There’s also the question of implementation: Can Trump even make this tariff happen? Tariffs generally apply to broad categories of products rather than a specific product from a single company, said Simon Lester, president of WorldTradeLaw.net and a fellow at the Baker Institute International Economics Program. That makes trying to implement this hyper-specific tariff “both a practical and legal challenge.” “It’s hard to see what statute would apply here,” he added.
特朗普威胁对苹果手机加征关税，使得苹果新机型涨价的可能性增大
苹果公司预计将在数月内发布四款新 iPhone 机型——而且它们的价格可能会超出你的预期。
周五，唐纳德·特朗普总统威胁要对苹果手机征收高额新关税，似乎意在迫使该公司将其最赚钱的产品线在国内生产。
特朗普在 Truth Social 上发帖称：“我早就告知蒂姆·库克，苹果公司在美国销售的 iPhone 必须在美国制造和组装，而不是在印度或其他任何地方。如果做不到这一点，苹果必须向美国支付至少 25% 的关税。”全球大多数消费者购买的 iPhone 都是在中国生产的，但苹果首席执行官库克在 5 月初表示，运往美国的大部分新 iPhone 将来自印度的组装厂。
目前，苹果公司没有一款 iPhone 是在美国生产的。即便苹果有意这么做，建立国内生产链的过程也会耗费巨资，而且需要数年时间——首批美国制造的 iPhone 可能要到特朗普卸任之后才能上市，Counterpoint Research 的高级分析师格里特·施内曼（Gerrit Schneemann）说道。
“那样就足够安抚了吗？我不知道。”他说道。
值得注意的是，特朗普并未提及库克所指出的苹果公司其他将主要从越南采购的产品，比如苹果手表、苹果电脑、苹果耳机和苹果平板电脑。
库克此前还曾表示，假定贸易政策保持稳定，该公司预计直接因关税而增加的成本将达 9 亿美元。而额外加征 25%的关税则使这一计算变得更加复杂，也使得苹果公司即便拥有庞大的现金储备，也更不可能通过自行承担这些成本来维持 iPhone 的价格稳定。
施内曼表示，尽管苹果 iPhone 17 系列涨价的可能性已经很大，但“这一最新动态几乎让涨价成为定局”。苹果公司未立即回应置评请求。
特朗普宣布这一消息之后，仍有一些问题悬而未决。
在总统发表声明后，财政部长斯科特·贝森特在福克斯新闻上露面时称，特朗普正“试图将精密制造业带回美国”。但目前尚不清楚总统的威胁在迫使苹果公司将 iPhone 生产迁回美国本土方面会有多大成效。
天风国际证券分析师郭明錤在 X 平台上发文称，如果特朗普的关税计划得以实施，苹果公司继续在海外生产所有 iPhone 机型将更有利可图。
这意味着，未来你可能购买的 iPhone 可能会比过去更贵，但不会像一些关于完全美国制造的 iPhone 价格的估计那么高。（有一个略显荒谬的猜测认为，美国制造的 iPhone 价格可能在 3500 美元左右。）还有一个实施的问题：特朗普真的能征收这种关税吗？世界贸易法网总裁、贝克研究所国际经济项目研究员西蒙·莱斯特表示，关税通常适用于广泛的产品类别，而非单个公司的特定产品。这使得试图实施这种极其具体的关税“既面临实际挑战，也面临法律挑战”。他还补充道：“很难看出这里适用什么法规。”
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