摩根士丹利——关税仍是悬而未决的变数
作者：微信文章Jul 31, 20257月 31， 2025
The U.S. has reached trade deals with some of its major trade partners, but ongoing negotiations and the lagging impacts of tariffs keep the outlook for markets and the global economy murky.
美国已经与一些主要贸易伙伴达成了贸易协议，但正在进行的谈判和关税的滞后影响使市场和全球经济的前景变得黯淡。
Key Takeaways关键要点
The U.S. and the European Union reached an agreement to impose a 15% tariff on EU imports, with exemptions for some sectors.
美国和欧盟达成协议，对欧盟进口商品征收15%的关税，部分行业可豁免。
Similar to agreements with Japan, the U.K. and other Asian countries, the final tariff is lower than the rate proposed in April by the White House, but materially higher than prior rates.
与与日本、英国和其他亚洲国家达成的协议类似，最终关税低于白宫 4 月份提出的税率，但大幅高于之前的税率。
There are still risks related to these agreements, both from a legal and implementation standpoint.
从法律和执行角度来看，这些协议仍然存在风险。
The impacts of tariffs are yet to be fully felt in the U.S. economy, though early signs are there. Historically, tariffs were only visible in inflation with a three- to five-month lag and growth with an even longer lag.
关税的影响尚未完全体现在美国经济中，尽管有早期迹象。从历史上看，关税仅在通货膨胀中可见，滞后时间为三到五个月，而增长则滞后时间更长。
The U.S. dollar depreciation in 2025 is adding to the overall cost of imports.
2025 年美元贬值正在增加进口的总体成本。
The agreement between the European Union and the U.S. on a framework trade deal was the most recent resolution on the talks with some of the main U.S. trade partners. With a 15% import tariff ceiling on most EU goods, the new tariff is half of what the White House proposed in April, but significantly higher than the rate of about 2.5% last year.
欧盟和美国之间关于框架贸易协议的协议是与美国一些主要贸易伙伴进行谈判的最新决议。由于对大多数欧盟商品的进口关税上限为15%，新关税是白宫4月份提议的一半，但明显高于去年约2.5%的税率。
The U.S. has reached similar deals recently with Japan, the U.K., Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines. Markets initially reacted positively to these announcements, mainly because the final tariffs are well below targets disclosed on “Liberation Day” in April, but those gains faded days after the announcements.
美国最近与日本、英国、印度尼西亚、越南和菲律宾达成了类似的协议。市场最初对这些公告反应积极，主要是因为最终关税远低于 4 月“解放日”披露的目标，但这些涨幅在公告发布几天后消退。
Morgan Stanley Research sees many tariff-related uncertainties on the horizon. Discussions with China, Mexico and Canada – countries with whom the U.S. maintains some of its important trade relationships – are underway and could drag on. There are questions about the longevity of deals, as they can be challenged in courts, and implementation is not always straightforward. Even more important, tariffs are still likely to hit the economy.
摩根士丹利研究部认为，许多与关税相关的不确定性即将出现。与中国、墨西哥和加拿大——美国与这些国家保持着一些重要的贸易关系——的讨论正在进行中，并且可能会拖延下去。交易的寿命存在问题，因为它们可能会在法庭上受到质疑，而且实施并不总是那么简单。更重要的是，关税仍有可能打击经济。
“The immediate risk of higher tariffs may be off the table, but trade policy uncertainty is still high, with the potential for future frictions as these agreements are difficult to implement and track,” says Morgan Stanley Senior Global Economist Rajeev Sibal. “We do not believe any particular deal can bring closure to the tariff narrative.”
摩根士丹利高级全球经济学家拉吉夫·西巴尔（Rajeev Sibal）表示：“提高关税的直接风险可能已经不在考虑范围内，但贸易政策的不确定性仍然很高，由于这些协议难以实施和跟踪，未来可能会出现摩擦。“我们不认为任何特定协议可以结束关税叙事。”
Clarity – for Now 清晰度——目前
Officials from the U.S. and the EU will continue discussing the details of their deal, but the announced bodes well for sectors that will become exempt from tariffs, including aircraft and their components, some generic pharmaceuticals and chemicals. For autos, the import tariff was reduced from 27.5% to 15%.
美国和欧盟官员将继续讨论协议的细节，但宣布的这一消息对于将免征关税的行业来说是个好兆头，包括飞机及其零部件、一些仿制药和化学品。汽车进口关税从27.5%降至15%。
“While a return to a zero-tariff environment for aerospace was highly anticipated by the market, having it formalized is still positive,” says Ross Law, who leads European Aerospace and Defense equity research at Morgan Stanley. “We would therefore expect aerospace stocks to outperform the broader sector.”
“虽然市场高度期待航空航天恢复零关税环境，但正式化仍然是积极的，”摩根士丹利欧洲航空航天和国防股票研究负责人 Ross Law 说。“因此，我们预计航空航天股的表现将优于更广泛的行业。”
The EU also agreed to add $600 billion in investments in the U.S. and increase purchases of energy to $750 billion over the next three years, including liquified natural gas (LNG) and nuclear power.
欧盟还同意在未来三年内增加对美国的 6000 亿美元投资，并将能源采购增加到 7500 亿美元，包括液化天然气（LNG）和核电。
Still, the agreement does not signal the end of trade tensions between the U.S. and the EU, according to Sibal.
尽管如此，西巴尔表示，该协议并不意味着美国和欧盟之间贸易紧张局势的结束。
“We expect the risk for tariff escalation could re-emerge if Europe and/or the U.S. are unable to maintain their commitments to the agreement,” Sibal says.
“我们预计，如果欧洲和/或美国无法履行对协议的承诺，关税升级的风险可能会再次出现，”Sibal 说。
A Lagging Economic Impact 滞后的经济影响
U.S. import data in May showed that the effective tariff rate was at 8.3%, much lower than Morgan Stanley’s baseline estimate of a rate in the low- to mid-teens, but there should be a convergence to the forecast in June and July.
美国5月进口数据显示，有效关税税率为8.3%，远低于摩根士丹利对10%左右的基准估计，但应该会与6月和7月的预测趋同。
Shipping delays, higher-than-expected USMCA imports from Mexico and Canada, and a sharp drop in purchases from China are among the reasons for the lower-than-expected rate.
航运延误、从墨西哥和加拿大进口的 USMCA 高于预期以及从中国的采购量急剧下降是导致运价低于预期的原因之一。
As data for June and July are likely to show a higher effective tariff rate, the pass through to U.S. inflation should be more apparent. Historically, the real impact on consumer prices appears three to five months after the tariff implementation, and the knock-on to growth comes one quarter later.
由于 6 月和 7 月的数据可能会显示更高的有效关税税率，因此对美国通胀的传递应该更加明显。从历史上看，对消费者价格的真正影响出现在关税实施后三到五个月，而对增长的连锁反应则在一个季度后出现。
“We expect tariffs could add up to 1 percentage point in prices in the coming months before subsiding as demand softens in reaction,” Sibal says.
“我们预计未来几个月关税可能会使价格增加 1 个百分点，然后随着需求疲软而消退，”Sibal 说。
The FX Factor for Asia 亚洲的外汇因素
After initial deals with four Asian nations, the effective U.S. tariff rate on imports from the region should rise to 24% from 5% in January 2025. Additionally, the depreciation of the U.S. dollar this year could represent an extra cost on all imports. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies of the U.S.’s major trading partners, fell about 11% in the first half of the year.
在与四个亚洲国家达成初步协议后，美国对该地区进口商品的有效关税税率应从 2025 年 1 月的 5% 升至 24%。此外，今年美元的贬值可能意味着所有进口商品的额外成本。衡量美元兑美国主要贸易伙伴一篮子货币的美元指数在今年上半年下跌了约 11%。
As in the U.S., the direct and indirect effects of higher tariffs for Asian economies are still unclear, but the drag on corporate confidence is likely to translate to weaker capital expenditures, while the dollar depreciation could have a significant impact on sales and margins of Asian exporters.
与美国一样，关税上调对亚洲经济体的直接和间接影响仍不清楚，但对企业信心的拖累可能会转化为资本支出疲软，而美元贬值可能会对亚洲出口商的销售和利润率产生重大影响。
“Investors are drawing comfort from the fact that trade deals are helping to provide clarity on the specific levels of tariffs that will be imposed, as well as the fact that the incoming economic data are still holding up,” says Morgan Stanley Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya. “However, someone still needs to pay the bill for higher tariffs.”
摩根士丹利首席亚洲经济学家 Chetan Ahya 表示：“贸易协议有助于明确将要征收的具体关税水平，以及即将公布的经济数据仍然保持稳定，这一事实让投资者感到欣慰。“然而，仍然需要有人为更高的关税买单。”
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