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Country notes
China: By 2029 China will be safely positioned as the world’s largest economy. But its progress in that direction is now likely to be slightly slower than we had expected last year as a result of two factors – slower growth as the country transitions from export led growth to consumer based growth; and a weaker renminbi as the country adjusts its exchange rate strategy to reflect China’s positioning of the renminbi as a reserve currency.
United States: The United States remains the most successful of the world’s older economies and the world’s technological leader. Indeed, as software becomes the world’s key industry, the US’s position as a technology leader is reinforced.
India: The world’s most populous nation has made a start in 2015 in catching up with China, with faster economic growth than China for the first time in recent years. But there is still a long way to go and India is only likely to overtake China at some point in the second half of the 21st century. India will however become the largest economy in the Commonwealth in 2019 when its economy overtakes the British economy. India is also likely to force its way into the exclusive G-8 group of the world’s leading economies.
Japan: While the league table only shows Japan losing one place as India overtakes in 2022, in reality Japan’s economic performance is one of the worst of the developed nations as a declining population, slow productivity growth and a weaker exchange rate take their toll. At some point between 2030 and 2040 both the UK and German economies are likely to overtake the Japanese economy.
Germany: Our forecast for the German economy is improved from last year as a result of a much larger population than we expected. The additional migration to Germany, mainly from Syria, will make the German population 1 to 1½ million more than we had previously forecast. The additional migrants will boost profits, restrain wage growth and alleviate skill shortages. As a result we no longer forecast that Germany will be overtaken by the UK by 2030 as we predicted last year. However, as the UK is still expected to grow faster than Germany, it is likely to overtake during the following decade. Germany is forecast to be held back by the weakness of the rest of the EU which it will be increasingly forced to subsidise if the euro is to survive.
United Kingdom: The United Kingdom is forecast to be the best performing economy in Western Europe and after overtaking France in 2014 is likely to overtake Germany and Japan during the 2030s. Indeed the UK could reach the giddy heights of becoming the world’s 4th largest economy for a short time during the 2030s if it manages to overtake Japan before it itself is overtaken by Brazil. The UK’s strength (though mainly in London) is its cultural diversity and its strong position in software and IT applications. Ist weakness is its bad export position and unbalanced economy, with many parts of the country heavily dependent on subsidies from the relatively high taxes levied on Londoners. It also runs the risk of breakup, with Scotland and possibly Northern Ireland seceding and will have a referendum on its continuing membership of the EU in 2016 which might prove at best disruptive and at worst lead to a more insular and less diverse culture which in turn would generate slower growth.
Korea: Korea is forecast during the next 15 years to join the big boys of the world economy, rising from 14th place in the league table in 2014 to 7th in 2031. This growth should lead to membership of the exclusive G-8 grouping of the world’s leading economic nations. Korea’s success is based on manufacturing strength but will increasingly be based on technology. It also has an electorate, a civil service and a government that believes that business is good for the economy.
Brazil: For a country that looked as if at one time it might have overtaken the UK (revised data shows that in fact it didn’t) 8th place in the league table will be a disappointment. Yet Brazil will still be one of the big beasts in the world economy and should force its way into the exclusive G-8 group of the world’s leading economies. Brazil has lost its way slightly in recent years, focusing on prestige projects and hosting international sporting events rather than on continuing economic reform.
France: Although France continues militarily to punch above its weight, replacing the UK as the US’s leading military partner in the Middle East, economically the picture is dire. Although the Manuel Valls government is one of the more impressive French governments of recent years and has started to roll back the mistakes of its predecessor, the pace of French economic reform is far too slow even for the economy to tread water in the world economy. France is forecast to slip from being the 5th largest world economy in 2013 to the 9th largest by 2031, leading it no longer to qualify on economic grounds for membership of the G-8 largest economies.
Canada: Canada in recent years has been one of the most impressively run of the world’s largest countries but the election of Mr Trudeau as Prime Minister hints that Canadians have tired of economic reform. Unfortunately the hectic pace of world economic change does not allow people to take holidays from economic improvement and although Canada is forecast to remain the world’s 10th largest economy, it may lose its position in the exclusive G-8 club of the world’s largest economies (actually Canada never qualified on purely economic grounds anyway but with the Indian economy by 2031 as much as 3 times the size of the Canadian economy, the discrepancy will become too large to ignore). |
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发表于 2016-8-15 09:19
