双疫记：一世纪的大不同

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作者：参考消息

A Tale of Two Pandemics：What a Difference a Century Makes

双疫记：一世纪的大不同

Ned Temko 内德·特姆科

here's no shortage of items on the world's to-do list as we enter 2021， but one will likely loom largest: the search for common ground to meet a raft of common challenges，at a time when powerful political currents have been pulling us apart.

So will multilateralism and cooperation start staging a comeback against the forces of narrow nationalism？ That won't be easy， and it will be a while before we'll know.

I've been drawing on an expert guide to the pandemic world of a century ago: British science writer Laura Spinney， whose book “Pale Rider: The Spanish Flu of 1918 and How It Changed the World” has kept me company over the self-isolated holiday period.

It's not what you'd call easy reading. But it is an eloquently told， assiduously researched story of the 1918-19 pandemic that also paints a vivid portrait of the world as it then was. And it's hard not to be struck by the differences between that world and our own – and how they might boost the chances of greater cooperation in the months ahead.

The similarities between the two pandemics， such as the impact of common-sense responses （heightened hygiene and social distancing， quarantines and isolation， for example）， are intriguing. Still， it's the differences that could carry the more important message for our post-pandemic future.

Even in the early 1900s， the world was interconnected， and the flu spread around the globe within a few months. Yet our world is far more immediately connected. People are more aware， often in real time， of the pandemic's effects worldwide – and of how well their governments and others are doing to contain it.

In 1918， Ms. Spinney points out， “Telephones were rare. Long-distance communication was mainly by telegraph， or，in parts of China， carrier pigeon.” And，she might have added， there was no internet. No smartphones. No Twitter， Facebook， or YouTube.

In the past few days， for instance， people worldwide have been following detailed reports of the appearance in dozens of countries of COVID-19's latest “British”mutation – a new reminder of the truly borderless nature of the pandemic.

Ms. Spinney records a range of political aftereffects from the pandemic a century ago. Yet many of them came only years later. In today's world， our immediate access to information and the breadth and speed of communication put pressure on governments and other institutions to respond much more quickly.

When the Spanish flu began spreading， Ms. Spinney points out， “Your best chance of survival was to be utterly selfish. Assuming you had a place you could call home， the optimal strategy was to stay there … not answer the door … jealously guard your hoard of food and water， and ignore all pleas for help.

“In general， however， people did not do this. They reached out to each other.”

That instinct was sometimes fatal on an individual level in 1919. In 2021， on a global level， it could prove to be our saving grace.

当我们踏入2021年的时候，全球任务清单上并不缺少待办事项，但有一件可能显得最紧迫：在强大的政治洪流把我们冲散的时候，如何寻找共同的立场来应对一系列共同的挑战。

那么，多边主义和合作能否东山再起，对抗狭隘的民族主义势力？这并不容易，我们需要一点时间才能知道。

我一直在参考专家关于一个世纪前瘟疫横行的世界的指南：英国科学作家劳拉·斯宾尼的《死神骑手：1918西班牙大流感以及它如何改变了世界》一书。它一直陪伴我度过了一段自我隔离的假期时光。

它并不是人们常说的简易读物。它通过流畅的文字和细致入微的研究讲述了1918-1919大瘟疫的故事，也生动地描绘了当时的世界模样。读者很难不震惊于彼时和现时两个世界的差异——以及这些差异如何能在未来的几个月里提高扩大合作的可能性。

两次疫情的相似之处——例如常识性抗疫措施（例如加强卫生条件和拉大社交距离、检疫和隔离）——的影响十分神奇。不过，可能会对我们疫情后的未来有着更重要意义的是两次疫情的不同之处。

哪怕是在20世纪初，世界也是紧密相连的，流感几个月内便传遍了全球。可是，今天的世界远比当年联系更为紧密。人们更清楚——常常是实时地——疫情在全世界的影响以及本国政府和他国政府在遏制疫情方面做得有多完美。

斯宾尼指出，1918年，“电话很少见。远距离通讯主要靠电报，或者在中国部分地区靠信鸽”。她可能还要加一句，那时没有互联网，没有智能手机，没有推特、脸书和YouTube。

例如，过去几天来，世界各地的人们一直在跟踪有关最新的“英国”新冠病毒变异毒株在几十个国家出现的详细报道——这再次提醒人们这场大流行病真的不分国界。

斯宾尼女士记录了一个世纪前那场瘟疫造成的一系列政治后果。然而，其中很多后果是在若干年后出现的。在当今世界，我们瞬间获得信息的能力以及通讯的广度和速度给各国政府和其他机构施加了压力，促使它们更快做出反应。

斯宾尼指出，当西班牙大流感开始传播时，“你活下来的最好机会是极致的自私。假设你有一个可以被称作家的地方，最佳策略就是待在那里，不要开门，小心翼翼地看好你储存的食物和水，对所有的求助恳求视而不见。

“不过，总的来说，当时的人们并没有这样做。他们伸手互助。”

1919年，那种本能在个人层面上有时是至关重要的。2021年，在全球层面，结果可能证明这是我们仅有的财富。（涂颀译自1月5日美国《基督教科学箴言报》网站）

来源：参考消息网