美对印50%关税今日生效!莫迪如何应对?

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01

引言

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在美印关系不断走向复杂化之际，特朗普政府正式对印度进口商品加倍征收关税，最高税率达到50%。这一史无前例的举措不仅冲击了印度纺织、珠宝、皮革等劳动密集型产业，威胁到成千上万的就业岗位，也使得两国本已紧张的经贸关系遭受重创。面对这一突如其来的“关税风暴”，印总理摸底一方面誓言坚守本国农民和中小企业的利益，另一方面则加紧推出减税与改革措施，以缓解冲击并维持经济增长。纵横经纬线对路透社、美国政客新闻网、NPR、BBC等外媒报道的核心内容进行编译梳理，供各位读者批判参考。

02

报道分析

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U. S. President Donald Trump's doubling of tariffs on imports from India to as much as 50% took effect as scheduled on Wednesday, delivering a serious blow to ties between the two countries that became strategic partners after the turn of this century.

The new tariffs threaten thousands of small exporters and jobs, including in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's home state of Gujarat, and are expected to hurt growth in the world's fastest growing major economy.

There was no domestic market reaction to the move on Wednesday as bourses were closed for a Hindu festival but equity benchmarks logged their worst session in three months on Tuesday after a Washington notification confirmed the additional tariff.

The Indian rupee also continued its losing streak for a fifth consecutive session on Tuesday, ending at its lowest level in three weeks.

While the tariff disruption would be bruising, it may not be all gloom and doom for the world's fifth largest economy if New Delhi can further reform its economy and become less protectionist while seeking to resolve the crisis with Washington, analysts said.

50%关税损害印经济增长：

美国总统特朗普对印度输美商品征收最高达50% 的关税政策已于周三如期生效。此举对本世纪初成为战略伙伴的美印关系造成沉重打击。

新关税政策将对印度数千家小型出口企业及相关就业岗位构成威胁，包括总理莫迪的家乡古吉拉特邦，还将拖累这个全球增长最快经济体的经济发展。

由于周三恰逢印度教节日，股市休市，国内市场暂未对此政策作出反应。但在周二，美国政府发布通知确认加征关税后，印度主要股指当日创下三个月来最大单日跌幅。

印度卢比汇率也在周二延续跌势，连续第五个交易日下跌，收盘跌至三周来最低水平。

分析师表示，尽管关税风波会带来负面影响，但对印度这个全球第五大经济体而言，情况并非一片黯淡。若印度政府能进一步推进经济改革、降低贸易保护主义程度，同时努力与美国解决此次危机，仍有望缓解局势。（路透社）

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Sectors to be impacted by US tariffs

Estimates by New Delhi-based think tank Global Trade Research Initiative suggest labor-intensive sectors such as textiles, gems and jewelry, leather goods, food and automobiles will be hit hardest.

"The new tariff regime is a strategic shock that threatens to wipe out India's long-established presence in the U.S., causing unemployment in export-driven hubs and weakening its role in the industrial value chain," said Ajay Srivastava, the think tank's founder and a former Indian trade official.

The U.S. has for now exempted some sectors such as pharmaceuticals and electronic goods from additional tariffs, bringing some relief for India as its exposure in these sectors is significant.

The tariffs come as the U.S. administration continues to push for greater access to India's agriculture and dairy sectors.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed not to yield to the pressure.

"For me, the interests of farmers, small businesses and dairy are topmost. My government will ensure they aren't impacted," Modi said at a rally this week in his home state of Gujarat.

Modi said the world was witnessing a "politics of economic selfishness."

A U.S. delegation canceled plans to visit New Delhi this week for a sixth round of trade talks.

受美国关税影响的行业：

新德里智库"全球贸易研究倡议"的评估显示，纺织品、珠宝首饰、皮革制品、食品和汽车等劳动密集型产业将遭受最严重冲击。

该智库创始人、前印度贸易官员阿贾伊·斯里瓦斯塔瓦表示："新关税制度是战略性打击，可能抹杀印度在美国市场的长期存在，导致出口驱动型产业中心失业率上升，削弱其在工业价值链中的作用。"

美国目前暂未对药品和电子产品等部分领域加征关税，这让印度获得些许喘息空间——该国在这些领域存在重大利益。

此次加税正值美国政府持续施压要求扩大进入印度农业和乳制品市场之际。

莫迪总理誓言绝不屈服于压力，他本周在古吉拉特邦的集会上表示："农民、小企业和乳业的利益对我而言至高无上，本届政府将确保他们不受影响。"

莫迪称世界正在见证"经济利己主义的政治"。

美国代表团已取消本周访问新德里进行第六轮贸易谈判的计划。（NPR）

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The tariff setback has sent the Indian government into firefighting mode. Earlier this month, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a promise to cut taxes to mitigate their economic impact. He has also urged domestic self-reliance.

After a $12bn income tax giveaway announced in the budget earlier this year, Modi is now aiming for an overhaul of India's indirect tax architecture – a reduction and simplification of the goods & service tax (GST).

Now, Modi has promised precisely that, with India's finance ministry putting out a proposal for a simplified two-tier GST system.

Modi's "fiscal stimulus" or tax cuts should help ensure a consumption recovery, according to investment banking firm Morgan Stanley. It will push GDP up and drag inflation down.

莫迪政府出台减税措施：

关税挫折使印度政府进入 “紧急救火” 模式。本月早些时候，印度总理莫迪承诺通过减税来缓解关税对经济的冲击，并呼吁国内加强 “自给自足” 能力。

今年早些时候，印度政府在预算案中宣布了一项规模达 120 亿美元的所得税减免政策。如今，莫迪正计划全面改革印度的间接税体系，即降低并简化商品和服务税（GST）。

目前，莫迪已明确作出这一承诺，印度财政部也已出台相关提案，拟建立一个简化的两级商品和服务税体系。

投资银行摩根士丹利表示，莫迪政府推出的 “财政刺激” 政策（即减税措施）有助于推动消费复苏，进而拉动国内生产总值增长，并降低通货膨胀率。（BBC）

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The additional tariffs are souring a once positive relationship between the two world leaders — who have called each other friends — and come as efforts to coordinate a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have stalled following a recent meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska.
The Indians, meanwhile, have shown little sign of budging on their Russian oil purchases, which the government has framed as purely an economic decision.In a modest concession to Washington, Indian refiners plan to trim their purchases of Russian crude in the coming weeks, according to reporting from Bloomberg. But it’s not clear if a slight reduction will move the needle for the Trump administration, and the country has no plans to sever its deep financial ties with Moscow.

地缘政治影响：

额外关税正危及两国领导人之间曾一度积极的关系 —— 此前两人还互称 “朋友”。与此同时，在特朗普与普京近期于阿拉斯加举行会晤后，协调俄罗斯总统普京与乌克兰总统泽连斯基会面的努力也陷入停滞。

另一方面，印度在购买俄罗斯石油问题上几乎没有表现出让步的迹象，印度政府将此举定义为纯粹的经济决策。

据彭博社报道，为向美国作出适度让步，印度炼油企业计划在未来几周减少俄罗斯原油的采购量。但目前尚不清楚这一轻微减产能否对特朗普政府产生影响，且印度暂无计划切断与俄罗斯之间深厚的金融联系。（美国政客新闻网)